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Japanese experts predict a magnitude 9.1 megaquake in the Nankai Trough with up to 320,000 deaths – 2012-08-30 19:53 ? People's Daily

People's Daily, Tokyo, August 30 (Reporter Teng Xue) — The possibility of a major earthquake occurring along the “Nankai Trough” off the central and western coasts of Japan has been forecast by a Japanese earthquake expert committee, which released its prediction on the 29th. The committee stated that if a major earthquake occurs, its intensity would be 1.8 times that of the Great East Japan Earthquake, and the resulting tsunami would directly hit most cities along Japan's eastern coast. The estimated death toll could reach up to 323,000, which is 13 times higher than Japan's 2003 forecast. The tsunami is also expected to submerge the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant (Omaezaki City, Shizuoka Prefecture). The committee emphasized that the central government and local governments must fundamentally revise their earthquake defense measures.

The expert committee also noted that the likelihood of such a high-magnitude earthquake occurring is very low. With appropriate evacuation measures and countermeasures, casualties could be reduced by up to one-fifth.

Based on the published predictions and detailed topographic data from prefectures and municipal areas ranging from Shizuoka to Miyazaki, it is estimated that if a magnitude 9.1 earthquake with an intensity of 7 occurs, the tsunami could reach a maximum height of 20 meters. Some areas of the three major metropolitan regions—Tokyo, Nagoya, and Osaka—would also be affected, possibly directly disrupting east-west logistics in Japan. If the protective wall of the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant is not 18 meters high, the plant would be submerged under approximately 9 meters of seawater.

In the published results, predictions were made for the degree of disaster in Japan's Tokai, Kinki, Shikoku, and Kyushu regions considering factors such as comprehensive seismic sources, earthquake timing, seasons, and wind speed. If the earthquake occurs on a winter midnight with strong winds, the death toll from the tsunami could reach 230,000, 82,000 could die from building collapses, and 11,000 from fires and other causes, totaling 323,000 deaths from the earthquake.

Note: The Nankai Trough is a trench spanning from Suruga Bay in Shizuoka Prefecture to the eastern sea area of Kyushu, covering approximately 700 square kilometers with a depth of about 4,000 meters. Located at the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Eurasian Plate, the southeastern coastal region of Japan along this trough is earthquake-prone. Experts point out that this area may experience an ultra-strong earthquake due to a chain reaction of successive earthquakes.